Opinions as facts

In the military decision making process, we build plans on a foundation of facts and assumptions.  I went over the additional category of "conjecture," which is like an assumption in that its purpose is to fill in for a missing fact, but is unlike a valid assumption because it has really weak links to established facts.

Let's look at opinions, which are far more often substituted for facts than mere conjecture.

Not that this is always a problem.  Opinions can be a lot like assumptions, filling in for missing facts, and dependable to the extent justified by the knowledge of the person giving the opinion about the subject of the opinion.  Also like an assumption, an opinion should be examined repeatedly to determine whether it is in fact negated by evolving events.  If the basis is sound, if the expert knows his stuff and if he had been given sufficient facts on which to base the opinion, you should be walking on pretty solid ground.

Opinions more often are useful only to the extent that they tell you something about the person stating the opinion, and not about the assertion of the opinion itself.  I may tell you oranges are great fruit but apples are not -- does that tell you anything about the fruit?  No!  But it does tell you something about me.

People are free to have opinions.  If President Bush the Elder did not like broccoli, he was entitled not to eat it.  If you're a Yankees fan, so be it.  We should all be glad that people have a sense of taste.

But opinions based on likes and dislikes need to end with that.  To fight with someone because their opinion differs should be, well, distasteful.  The ancient Byzantines got into huge riots over sports team affiliations, showing how silly even the members of a great civilization could be at times.

Facts and assumptions.  If you want to make an intelligent investigation into what's what and what to do about it, get down to facts and assumptions.  If it's a fact, it will stand on its own.  If its an assumption, it is as strong as the facts that it's built on.  If it needs your opinion to hold up against criticism, maybe you should find something else to work with...