Facts and assumptions

Serving as a planner with a heavy infantry division going to Iraq in 2005 I learned a lot about many things -- other than just how hot it actually is in the desert in the summer!  One of the most useful things was a process called the Military Decision Making Process. It is a way of looking at a situation and deciding exactly what to do and how to get it done. And central to this whole process is the identification of critical facts and assumptions.

Being the military, the terms are defined and structured in a few field manuals and other publications, and used in fairly precise ways there. It's not the exact military process that is so important, though, but rather the idea that you need to be specific, objective and thorough in laying out exactly what the world looks like and what makes it move before you take any action to change it.

Facts and assumptions. Facts are things, relationships, influences, etc., that are firmly known. Facts are important only if the relate somehow to what you're trying to do, but you need to make sure you look at and consider every fact that actually could influence success. A fact that doesn't have that relationship isn't something to worry about.

Assumptions, according to the doctrine, fill in gaps in the facts. They are things you believe to be true, but can't quite nail down with certainty. When you make an assumption, you need to continuously evaluate whether or not the world is behaving as though it were true -- if it doesn't, then you need to consider dumping that assumption and replacing it with one that is more consistent with the facts you have developed.

Why is this important?People argue and fight over all kinds of things, the cop attitudes towards other people because they see things differently, they get fired up because of expectations about what a decision or a situation will develop into.

In a formal way, litigation is just a way to uncover, validate and evaluate facts and assumptions as presented by two sides to a controversy. So we are all quite used to the idea that both truth and wisdom can be uncovered by presentation and evaluation of evidence and testimony, and by intelligent argument between people with views at odds with each other.

I propose that people should use facts and assumptions to work their way through every controversial issue they are interested in, to critique politicians, pundits, news media, and even to make decisions in their own professional, business and personal lives.

The process involves laying out what you think are critical facts, and why you think they are facts. Where does this knowledge come from? Is it solid, or does it depend on other facts and factors? Work your way backwards until you get to the ground truth.

If you can't get down to an absolutely clear, solid, unquestionable fact, then you're dealing with an assumption. Assumptions are only as strong as the facts they are built around. A valid assumption has to be more than a guess, conjecture or an opinion. Like it, don't like it, it doesn't matter if it's not grounded in unquestionable reality.

When you think you have something solid, be open to contrary views. People like to shoot down any view that disagrees with their own, but the honest fact is that truth and wisdom stand on their own, and they stand up against criticism. If your view can't stand up against a contrary view, then why would you want to stand on it? You can't fly by flapping your arms, no matter how much you believe or how loud you yell... If anything, stubborn refusal to acknowledge an error is something to be ashamed of...

Well, enough for now -- look forward to sharing more!